With regional bank volatility dominating the headlines, CIO Larry Adam looks at what this activity means for the economy and asset classes.
To read the full article, see the Market Thoughts post linked below.
In the past two weeks, regional banking turmoil has resurfaced as First Republic Bank collapsed and was eventually sold to JP Morgan, shares of other smaller regional banks such as PacWest and Western Alliance plummeted, and the TD Bank-First Horizon merger was stunning. Swept away. While the S&P 500 was largely unchanged during this period, the KBW Regional Banking Index plummeted and is now down 61% year-to-date to a three-year low. Volatility in the regional banking sector is likely to continue in the near term. While headlines about bank failures are worrying for investors, it's important to put the recent period of banking volatility into perspective and consider what it means for the economy and asset classes.
Economy - not yet at extremes
A healthy banking system is important for economic growth, and fortunately the recent turmoil has not yet reached a level that would cause us to significantly change our economic forecasts. It was hoped that the US central bank's (Fed's) tighter lending standards would cool the economy and prevent inflationary pressures – which it did. The recent turmoil in regional banks, largely caused by poor strategy and risk management, is likely to have a greater impact on corporate lending than retail lending.
Impact on loans| As a result of the Fed's tightening cycle - 10 consecutive meetings to raise the Fed rate - and rising borrowing costs from credit cards to car loans, lending standards were already tightening, leading to this recent banking turmoil. At the end of the first quarter, a net 45% of banks were observed to report tightening lending standards, up from -15% (indicating an easing of lending standards) just a year ago. On May 8, updated data from the Fed's Senior Lending Survey for the first quarter will be released and will likely point to further tightening of lending standards. Small and medium-sized banks in particular are likely to tighten their lending standards, which in turn will weigh on both lending and investment for small businesses going forward.
Small Business Successes |Compared to larger firms, small firms rely heavily on regional and smaller banks rather than larger banks (>$250 billion in assets) for financing. As a result, regional banking turmoil will disproportionately affect smaller businesses. Not surprisingly, net respondents to the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reported that the availability of easier loans has fallen to the lowest level (-9%) since 2012, and only 2% saw now as a good time to expand, the lowest level. down from the great financial crisis. Since small businesses account for approximately 48% of total employment and generate approximately 44% of total economic activity, a slowdown in small businesses will be a drag on economic growth going forward.
The consumer stays in the driver's seatAlthough tightening lending standards and a potential slowdown in small business activity could create obstacles to economic growth going forward, we do not want to overstate their impact. Why; Because consumer spending is approximately 70% of GDP and is usually the main driver of the economy's trajectory. Until a significant downturn in the labor market occurs, which has not yet occurred (shown by the fact that the US economy added 253,000 jobs in April), healthy consumer spending is likely to amplify any weakness in business investment.
stable income–downward pressure on yields
Continued jitters in the banking sector led to wild swings in bond yields, with the 2-year Treasury moving more than 20 basis points (bps) in one day, mostly down, on nine separate occasions over the past 60 days. Movements of this magnitude are extremely rare. The last time the market was this volatile was in the 1980s.
Market turmoil, whatever form it takes, is always met with a political response. And while the Fed and regulators have stepped in to bolster confidence and provide banks with liquidity during this latest turmoil, markets remain concerned that more shoes will drop. As uncertainty increases, there is a disconnect between the market's view and the Fed's rhetoric about the future path of interest rates.
This tug-of-war between the markets and the Fed looks set to continue. As we expect a mild recession in the second half of this year, we maintain our expectation for a year-end government rate of 3.0% and a high-quality bias that favors investment grade and municipals over high-yield debt. . A difficult economic environment and tighter lending standards could lead to a potential increase in defaults on lower quality bonds that are not yet priced at high yield spreads.
Actions–the stock market is not the economy
We've said before that it's important to recognize that the economy and the stock market can be different. As a result, while it is important to understand the dynamics that drive the economy and financial conditions, it is more important to assess how they specifically affect the stock market.
The influence on the S&P 500 is minimal| The banking turmoil has generated a significant amount of headlines, but how much is the ongoing turmoil at regional banks affecting the stock market? The immediate impact of the regional banking crisis should be minimal on the S&P 500, as the regional banking sub-sector only makes up ~0.30% of the index per share. May 3, 2023. As regional banks have declined in value, they have become a smaller component of large-cap market indexes and will contribute little to those returns going forward. Consolidation in the banking sector is now a tailwind for large equity returns, as the larger banks are much more insulated from the short-term risks faced by these regional banks.
We don't have a crystal ball to know how long the regional banking turmoil will last, and its volatility and bonds are likely to remain uncomfortable. However, as we mentioned above, while there are moderate economic implications, banking problems are likely to remain confined to the regional banking area. As a result, we do not believe this turmoil will lead the US into a severe recession (we expect a mild recession from Q3 2023 onwards as the labor market weakens), and we reiterate our year-end target of 4,400 S&P 500.
Read the full Market Thought
All opinions expressed reflect the judgment of the author(s) and the investment strategy team, but not necessarily those of Raymond James & Associates and are subject to change. This information should not be construed as a recommendation. The above content can be changed at any time without notice. The content here is for informational purposes only. There is no guarantee that statements, opinions or predictions contained in this document will be correct. Economic and market conditions can change. Investing involves risks, including potential loss of capital. The material is provided for information purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.
The information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not warrant that the above material is accurate or complete. Diversification and asset allocation do not guarantee profits or protect against losses.
INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS | International investments involve additional risks, such as currency fluctuations, different accounting standards and potential political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets.
OIL | Investing in oil involves special risks, including the potential adverse effects of state and federal regulations, and may not be suitable for all investors.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) | is a measure of inflation prepared by the US Bureau of Labor Studies.
Personal Consumer Price Index | PCE is a measure of the prices paid by people living in the United States or by those who buy goods and services on their behalf.
Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Inc. holds the CFP® and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ certification marks in the USA.
Investments & Wealth InstituteTM (The Institute) holds the certification marks 'CIMA' and 'Certified Investment Management Analyst'. Use of CIMA and/or Certified Investment Management Analyst means that the user has successfully completed the institute's initial and continuing certification requirements for investment management professionals.
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks of CFA Institute.
DEFINITION OF FIXED INCOME
TOTAL LINK | Bloomberg US Agg Bond Total Return Index: The index is a market measure for investment grade fixed income taxable bonds of approx. 6,000 securities registered with the SEC with an average maturity of approx. 10 years. The index includes government bonds, government bonds, corporate bonds, MBS, ABS and CMBS sector bonds.
HIGH PERFORMANCE | Bloomberg US High Yield Corporate Total Return Index: The index measures the US dollar market for high yield corporate bonds. Bonds are classified as high yield if the median of Moody's, Fitch and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or lower.
S&P 500 | S&P Total Return Index: The index is widely considered to be the best single stock index for large companies in the United States. That's more than $7.8 trillion compared to the index, with index assets representing about $2.2 trillion of the total. The index includes 500 leading companies and covers approximately 80% of the available market capitalization.
KBW REGIONAL BANK INDEX | The KBW Regional Banking Index is an equity benchmark for the regional banking sector, representing small and medium-sized US national regional banks.
2000 RUSSELL INDEX | The Russell 2000 Index is an American small-cap stock market index that makes up the 2,000 smallest stocks in the Russell 3000 Index.
NFIB SMALL BUSINESS INDEX | A seasonally adjusted ten-item composite that provides an indication of the health of small businesses in the United States.
INTERNATIONAL INFORMATION FOR OVERSEAS CUSTOMERS | For clients of Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document refers is for the sole use of the persons to whom it is directed, i.e. persons who are qualified counterparties or professional clients as described in the Regulations or FCA persons described in section 19(5) (investment professionals) or section 49(2) (high-net worth companies, unregistered associations etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) 2005 Order (as amended) or any other person to whom this Promotion may lawfully be addressed. It is not intended to be distributed or transmitted, directly or indirectly, to any other group of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for individuals or persons who may be classified as retail customers.
FOR CLIENTS OF RAYMOND JAMES INVESTMENT SERVICES, LTD.: This document is intended for professional investment advisers and managers and not for clients.
TO CUSTOMERS IN FRANCE | This document and any investment referred to therein is intended solely for the use of the persons for whom it is intended, who are persons who are qualified counterparties or professional clients as described in the "Code Monetaire et Financier" and in the General Regulations de l'Autorite des marches Funders. It is not intended to be distributed or transmitted, directly or indirectly, to any other class of people and cannot be perceived by those people and is therefore not intended for natural persons or those who can be classified as private customers.
FOR RAYMOND JAMES EURO EQUITIES CLIENTS | Raymond James Euro Equities is authorized and regulated by the Autorite de Controle Prudentiel et de Resolution and the Autorite des Marches Financiers.
FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS IN THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AREA (EU) OUTSIDE THE UNITED KINGDOM | This document (and any attachments or appendices) is intended only for institutional customers in the EEA or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
FOR CANADIAN CUSTOMERS | This document is not subject to Canadian disclosure requirements unless a Canadian has contributed to the content of the document. Where there is a Canadian contribution, the document meets all applicable IROC disclosure requirements.
Source: FactSet, per 05/04/2023
SEDE INTERNACIONAL: RAYMOND JAMES FINANSIELLE CENTER 880 CARILLON PARKWAY // ST. PETERSBURG, FL 33716 // 800.248.8863 RAYMONDJAMES.COM
© 2023 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member of the New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. © 2023 Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Investment products are: not deposits, not insured by the FDIC/NCUA, not insured by any government agency, not backed by a bank, subject to risk and may lose value.
What is causing the banking crisis 2023? ›
The 2023 banking crisis was the worst crisis in the US and Europe since the 2007-2008 global financial crisis. This banking crisis was caused by aggressive interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve. The increase in interest rates led to huge losses on the portfolios of government bonds held by US banks.What are the main causes of a banking crisis? ›
Common causes of banking crises include economic recessions, poor lending practices, excessive risk-taking, lack of regulation or oversight, and external shocks like pandemics or natural disasters.What solved the banking crisis? ›
The Glass-Steagall Banking Act stabilized the banks, reducing bank failures from over 4,000 in 1933 to 61 in 1934. To protect depositors, the Act created the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), which still insures individual bank accounts.What does banking crisis mean in the Great Depression? ›
A nationwide panic ensued in 1933 when bank customers descended upon banks to withdraw their assets, only to be turned away because of a shortage of cash and credit. The United States was in the throes of the Great Depression (1929–41), a time when the economy worsened, businesses failed, and workers lost their jobs.Which banks are in trouble 2023? ›
|First Republic Bank||San Francisco||CA|
|Signature Bank||New York||NY|
|Silicon Valley Bank||Santa Clara||CA|
|Failed banks||Date closed|
|First Republic Bank||05/01/2023|
|Signature Bank, New York||03/12/2023|
|Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, Calif.||03/10/2023|
Great Recession in Russia. 2008–2009 Ukrainian financial crisis. 2008–2014 Spanish financial crisis. Post-2008 Irish banking crisis.What are the two bank failures in 2023? ›
In March 2023, Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank suffered two of the largest bank failures in U.S. history. Risky business strategies, weak risk management practices, and weak liquidity drove the failures. Both banks grew rapidly from 2019-2021—which can signal risk.What was the biggest banking crises? ›
The 7 crises that will be presented are the Great Depression 1932; the Suez Crisis 1956; the International Debt Crisis 1982; the East Asian Economic Crisis 1997-2001; the Russian Economic Crisis 1992-97, the Latin American Debt Crisis in Mexico, Brazil and Argentina 1994-2002, and the Global Economic Recession 2007-09.Should I withdraw my money from the bank 2023? ›
Despite the recent uncertainty, experts don't recommend withdrawing cash from your account. Keeping your money in financial institutions rather than in your home is safer, especially when the amount is insured. “It's not a time to pull your money out of the bank,” Silver said.
How will the banking crisis affect the economy? ›
As risk aversion and regulatory scrutiny of small banks increases, aggregate lending is likely to fall. This will hit economic activity, leading to more defaults and further tightening of lending conditions. This could threaten the stability of the financial system.How can we protect ourselves from banking crisis? ›
One way to prepare for the potential risks of a banking meltdown or economic shock is to diversify one's investments. This means spreading out investments across different types of assets such as stocks, bonds, real estate and commodities, as well as diversifying across different currencies.Is the banking crisis over? ›
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated Wednesday that the period of bank failures that have rattled markets and the economy has come to an end.How do bank failures cause the economy to go into recession? ›
Explanation. In the situation of bank failure, banks run out of liquidity to pay back depositors and other creditors. They are aso unable to extend loans to businesses who in turn faces challenges to raise funds. Lack of funds would affect operations causing decline in production.What caused issues for banks during the Great Depression? ›
Many banks fail, many because they have made loans to stock market speculators that are never repaid. As the Depression eases into a national emergency, reaching its height between 1932 and 1933, the U.S. government establishes several agencies as a means for discharging new and emergency functions.Are US banks at risk? ›
A new report has found that 186 banks in the US are at risk of failure due to rising interest rates and a high proportion of uninsured deposits. The research, posted on the Social Science Research Network titled 'Monetary Tightening and US Bank Fragility in 2023: Mark-to-Market Losses and Uninsured Depositor Runs?'Which US banks have collapsed? ›
Two regional US banks, California-based Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and New York's Signature Bank, have collapsed under the weight of heavy losses on their bond portfolios and a massive run on deposits.Which US banks are too big to fail? ›
- JPMorgan Chase.
- Bank of America.
- Wells Fargo.
- BNY Mellon.
- Goldman Sachs.
- Morgan Stanley.
- State Street.
First Republic is the latest US bank to fail as fears persist about the industry's stability. Concerns about the stability of banks in the United States and elsewhere persist. First Republic failed this week; another two banks collapsed in March.How many US banks have collapsed in 2023? ›
Over the course of five days in March 2023, three small- to mid-size U.S. banks failed, triggering a sharp decline in global bank stock prices and swift response by regulators to prevent potential global contagion.
What was the largest bank failure in US history? ›
As a regulator, the FDIC strives to prevent bank failures by monitoring the industry's performance and enforcing regulations intended to make sure financial institutions operate in a safe and sound manner. Banking, however, is a competitive business.What are the phases of a banking crisis? ›
progressed in two and sometimes three stages: (1) Initiation of Financial Crisis. (2) Banking Crisis. (3) Debt Deflation.What should banks focus on in 2023? ›
According to BAI research, new customer acquisition is the #1 priority for banks in 2023. To unlock their full growth potential, banks must tap into younger generations—segments that desire more convenient, digital-friendly ways of accessing services.Which banks are at risk? ›
- First Republic Bank (FRC) - Get Free Report. Above average liquidity risk and high capital risk.
- Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) - Get Free Report. ...
- KeyCorp (KEY) - Get Free Report. ...
- Comerica (CMA) - Get Free Report. ...
- Truist Financial (TFC) - Get Free Report.
The Risk of 186 Bank Failures in 2023.Why are regional banks failing? ›
The U.S. regional banking crisis commenced in March, primarily as an effect of the multiple interest rate hikes made over the past year and recession worries which dried up demand for loans by small firms and startups - the focus group for regional banks.What is banking crisis easy? ›
More specifically, a systemic banking crisis is a situation when a country's corporate and financial sectors experience a large number of defaults and financial institutions and corporations face great difficulties repaying contracts on time.How much cash should I keep at home? ›
Jesse Cramer, founder of The Best Interest and relationship manager at Cobblestone Capital Advisors, believes less than $1,000 is ideal. “It depends person to person, but an amount less than $1,000 is almost always preferred.Should I take all my money out of the bank? ›
It doesn't make sense to take all your money out of a bank, said Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors and portfolio manager of the InfraCap Equity Income ETF. But make sure your bank is insured by the FDIC, which most large banks are.
Should I keep cash instead of bank? ›
It's a good idea to keep a small sum of cash at home in case of an emergency. However, the bulk of your savings is better off in a savings account because of the deposit protections and interest-earning opportunities that financial institutions offer.How long will 2023 recession last? ›
In a best-case scenario, the U.S. will likely see a 'soft landing' with low/slow growth across 2023 before picking up in 2024. However, a downside scenario is a real possibility and could see the U.S. enter a prolonged recession lasting well into 2024, as is currently forecast for the UK and Germany.Is your money safe in the bank during a recession? ›
You can keep money in a bank account during a recession and it will be safe through FDIC insurance. Up to $250,000 is secure in individual bank accounts and $500,000 is safe in joint bank accounts.What happens to peoples money in bank during recession? ›
Generally, money kept in a bank account is safe—even during a recession. However, depending on factors such as your balance amount and the type of account, your money might not be completely protected. For instance, Silicon Valley Bank likely had billions of dollars in uninsured deposits at the time of its collapse.How can banks overcome risks? ›
Banks develop risk management programs like this by creating a risk identification process using a root-cause approach. Then banks determine the risks relevant to their organizations and why those events occur. Banks can also design risk mitigation strategies to neutralize those risks and prevent them from re-emerging.Where is your money safest during a recession? ›
Some stock market sectors, like health care and consumer staples, generally perform better than others in a recession. Healthy large cap stocks also tend to hold up relatively well during downturns. Investing in broad funds can help reduce recession risk through diversification.What not to do during a recession? ›
For example, you'll want to avoid becoming a co-signer on a loan, taking out an adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM), or taking on new debt. Workers considering quitting their jobs should prepare for a longer search if they decide to find a new one later.When did the banking crisis end? ›
The crisis ended when Roosevelt declared a national bank holiday beginning March 6, 1933, and announced the suspension of gold shipments (Wheelock 1992). According to Friedman and Schwartz, the Federal Reserve System as a whole had no policy in place in the two months leading up to the national banking holiday.How long will banks be around? ›
Key insights noted by the study include a 6.5% decline in bank branches since 2012: This trend would see total number of physical banks nationwide fall to fewer than 16,000 by 2030 and all branches closing by 2034.What is a bank run How do they cause banks to collapse? ›
A bank run is when customers flock to banks, either physically or online, to withdraw their funds because they lose confidence in the bank. In extreme cases, they can cause the collapse of a bank, as a bank run did in 2023 when Silicon Valley Bank became insolvent.
Is the United States going into a recession? ›
Many economists agree that the U.S. is, for now, not in a recession. The most recent gross domestic product report published last week showed the U.S. economy grew by 2.9% in the fourth quarter of 2022, following growth of 3.2% in the quarter before.Why did the banking crisis lead to the Great Recession? ›
Housing prices started falling in 2007 as supply outpaced demand. That trapped homeowners who couldn't afford the payments, but couldn't sell their houses either. When the values of the derivatives crumbled, banks stopped lending to each other. That created the financial crisis that led to the Great Recession.What are the solutions to bank failure? ›
The FDIC uses a number of methods to resolve failed banks including deposit payoffs, insured-deposit transfers, purchase and assumption (P&A) agreements, whole- bank transactions, and open-bank assistance.What happens to your money in the bank during a depression? ›
Deposits Are Protected by the FDIC. This is overwhelmingly the main form of protection that consumers have in case their banks fail due to an economic downturn or other issue. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is a semi-private organization that was created in the wake of the Great Depression.How many banks failed during the Great Recession? ›
The 2007–2008 financial crisis led to many bank failures in the United States. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) closed 465 failed banks from 2008 to 2012.Is my money safe in the bank 2023? ›
While banks are insured by the FDIC, credit unions are insured by the NCUA. "Whether at a bank or a credit union, your money is safe. There's no need to worry about the safety or access to your money," McBride said.Is 2023 going to be bad financially? ›
There is broad consensus that the U.S. is likely to see an economic slowdown in Q1 2023 as the impacts of the Federal rate rises from late 2022 start to feed into the economy; however, there is a significant divergence with regards to the quarters that follow.What are the trends in 2023 in the banking industry? ›
According to BAI research, new customer acquisition is the #1 priority for banks in 2023. To unlock their full growth potential, banks must tap into younger generations—segments that desire more convenient, digital-friendly ways of accessing services.How many US banks have failed in 2023? ›
There are 3 bank failures in 2023. See detailed descriptions below.What was the biggest US bank failure? ›
|Bank||City||Assets at time of failure|
|Washington Mutual||Seattle||$386 billion|
|First Republic Bank||San Francisco||$229 billion|
|Silicon Valley Bank||Santa Clara||$209 billion|
Should I take my money out of the bank during a recession? ›
If you're worried about keeping money in your bank account during a recession, you can rest assured that your money will likely be safe at a financial institution, and you won't need to take it out of your bank account.How can I protect my money in 2023? ›
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Series I savings bonds.
- Short-term certificates of deposit.
- Money market funds.
- Treasury bills, notes, bonds and TIPS.
- Corporate bonds.
- Dividend-paying stocks.
- Preferred stocks.
The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 percent in 2022 to 2.8 percent in 2023, before settling at 3.0 percent in 2024. Advanced economies are expected to see an especially pronounced growth slowdown, from 2.7 percent in 2022 to 1.3 percent in 2023.What are the top economic concerns for 2023? ›
- An imminent recession. ...
- Stubborn inflation. ...
- China's COVID chaos. ...
- An energy crisis. ...
- Geopolitical tensions, technology war.
In 2023, economic activity is projected to stagnate, with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Interest rates are projected to remain high initially and then gradually decrease in the next few years as inflation continues to slow.What will happen to banks in 2023? ›
Growing deposits will be a priority in 2023. Banks' concerns over small business deposits soared to 72% from 41% in 2022. For credit unions, retail deposits topped the list, skyrocketing from 18% in 2022 to 70% in 2023.Which bank is best in 2023? ›
- Union Bank of India.
- HDFC Bank.
- ICICI Bank.
- Kotak Bank.
- Bank of Baroda.
- Bank of India.
- Axis Bank.
- Canara Bank.
By 2025, Alan McIntyre, senior managing director for banking at Accenture, expects payments to move completely away from cards and phones toward wearables and biometrics. “Whether it is tapping a ring that you wear or facial recognition, the payment will become more seamless,” he said.